洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C( 四 )

2026-01-10

Percentageoftotalturnoverinmargintradesisapproachingitslimitof12%sincethe2015burst.Regulators’attitudetowardsOTCmarginisclear,thoughleveragedfundsfromoverseasviatheConnectSchemearehardertoregulate.Thatsaid,buyingbythesefundsisalsohittingtheforeigntradinglimitinthenearterm.

GrowthinUS’moneyofzeromaturity(MZM)isslowingtoitshistoricallows,suggestingpeakedUSgrowth,andcorrespondingtoinflectionpointsintheAshares.Thisisconsistentwithourdiscussionregardingtheimportanceof2,450intheShanghaiCompositeinour2019outlookreport“TurningaCorner”.WithChinaopeningfurther,USliquiditywillcome.TheA50vs.CSI500/ChiNextrotationwhileSHCOMPpausessuggeststradingliquidityishittingitsnear-termlimit.Marketbottomingwillnotbesmoothsailing,butwecontinuetobelievelong-termupwardtrendtrumpsshort-termmoves.

HowtoMakeMoneyinChineseStocks?

Atarecentinvestmentconferencehostedbyastatenewsagency,theatmospherewasvivid.“WillthecentralbankcutRRRagain?”theaudiencepressed.“Willitcutinterestratesoon?”ThequestionsmaroonedmeattheliveQ&Asession,whileotherspeakersonthemoreimportantlegalandregulatorytopicsweresidelined.Outsidethewindowpane,thewindwaswhisperingspring.

Tous,itisalittleoddtoencountersuchquestions.Ourresearchhasshownthatthehoipolloihasnotbenefitedmuchfrommonetaryeasing,astheaccesstoeasycreditshasbeenreservedfortheprivilegedfew(,20161114,and,20171114).Asglobalcentralbankscontinuetoeaseasifitisapanacea,theassetbubblesaroundtheworldhaveshownfewsignsofdeflating.Rememberthatpreviousdeflationarybustsinthe1920sandJapan’slostdecadessincethe1990swereallprecededbyfinancialbubbles.

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