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非洲■2050年，非洲人口将翻倍( 二 )


As a result, some doomsayers are dusting off the theories of Thomas Malthus, who argued in 1798 that a growing human population would starve because it would outstrip the supply of food. Among these is Malcolm Potts, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who argued in a paper in 2013 that “the Sahel could become the first part of planet Earth that suffers large-scale starvation and escalating conflict as a growing human population outruns diminishing natural resources.”
因此 ， 一些悲观消极者对托马斯?马尔萨斯的理论嗤之以鼻 。 托马斯?马尔萨斯在1789年提出人口终将达到饱和状态 ， 因为大量的人口会造成食物供应短缺 。 支持这一理论的人包括加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校的马尔科姆?波茨 。 他在2013年的一篇论文中提到摩洛哥的荒漠草原地带将是世界上第一个遭受大规模饥荒并且冲突不断升级的地方 ， 因为人口的增长会耗尽不断衰竭的自然资源 。
Yet demographic forecasts of coming decades diverge in a way that could be crucial. The UN expects Africa’s population to double again between 2050 and 2100, to 4.3bn people, or 39% of the world’s total and that fertility rates (the average number of children that women will have over their lives) will fall slowly. It reckons that the rate, which has dropped to about 4.4 from 6.7 in 1980, will take another 30 years to fall below three. But that underestimates the impact of a big jump in the number of girls who are now going to school across large parts of the continent, argues Wolfgang Lutz, a demographer at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna. It also highlights the urgency of getting even more of them into school.
然而专家对未来几十年内人口情况的预计将起到至关重要的作用 。 联合国预计在2050-2100年间非洲人口将再次翻倍达到43亿 ， 占据世界总人口的39% ， 而生育率（一个女人一生所生孩子的平均数量）则将缓慢下降 。 自1980年至今 ， 非洲妇女的生育率已从6.7降至4.4 。 据估计 ， 再过三十年这一数值将控制在3以内 。 但是 ， 维也纳国际学院应用体系分析部的人口学家沃尔夫冈?卢茨称 ， 这一揣测低估了非洲大量增长的接受学校教育女童所会产生的影响 。
In the 1970s little more than half of children in sub-Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school. That share has shot up to almost 100%. The statistic is slightly misleading, since the percentage of children regularly attending schools is lower, though improving. In Ethiopia, for instance, primary-school enrollment has risen to 100% from 65% in 2003, though attendance only stands at 61%. This matters because few things have a stronger influence over fertility rates than education. African women with no formal education have, on average, six or more children. This falls to about four for women who have finished primary school and to about two for those who have finished secondary school.
20世纪70年代在撒哈拉以南非洲 ， 接受小学教育的儿童还不到一半 。 现在这一百分比已达到100% 。 这一数据并不十分准确 ， 因为稳定接受学校教育的儿童所占百分比并没有这么高 ， 尽管情况有所改善 。 例如 ， 在埃塞俄比亚 ， 儿童小学录取率由2003年的65%提升至现在的100% ， 但是出勤率只有61% 。 这一点很重要 ， 因为没有什么比教育对生育率的影响更大 。 没有接受正规教育的非洲妇女平均有6个甚至6个以上的孩子 ， 而接受小学教育的妇女平均有4个孩子 ， 接受初等教育的妇女 ， 这一数字降至2 。


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