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非洲■2050年，非洲人口将翻倍( 四 )


Morocco, which has one of the lower fertility rates in Africa at 2.4, also has one of the highest rates of saving. Because of this the government is able to borrow at interest rates of 2.25% a year. Nigeria has a fertility rate twice Morocco’s and its national savings as a share of GDP are half the level of Morocco’s.
摩洛哥的生育率相比于非洲各国是较低的 ， 仅有2.4 ， 而该国的存款率是最高的 。 正因为此 ， 政府每年都能够以2.25%的利率贷款 。 尼日利亚的生育率是摩洛哥的两倍 ， 但它的国家存款仅是摩洛哥的一半 。
Nigeria has to pay 13% when issuing local-currency bonds. “What marks China, Mauritius or Morocco apart from Kenya, DR Congo, Nigeria and Zambia, is the fertility rate,” says Charlie Robertson of Renaissance Capital, an investment bank. “The former have fewer children and high savings. The latter have many children, low savings, and high interest rates.”
尼日利亚以13%的利率发放地方货币债券 。 来自一家名为Renaissance Capital投资银行的查理?罗伯森说：“中国、毛里求斯和摩洛哥 ， 这些国家与肯尼亚、刚果共和国、尼日利亚和赞比亚的不同之处就在于生育率 。 前面一些国家没有那么多孩子但国家有很多储蓄 ， 而后面一些国家孩子多 ， 国家储蓄少 ， 利率高 。 ”
But it is not enough to simply change the dependency ratio. Skills matter, too. A recent study by the African Development Bank found that the higher the literacy of countries, the more diverse their exports. Put together these various influences can be powerful. David Canning at Harvard University and others reckon that lowering the fertility rate by one child more than forecast in Nigeria would almost double the size of its expected increase in income per head by 2060.
仅仅改变抚养率是不够的 。 技能也很重要 。 最近一项由非洲发展一行领导开展的一项研究发现识字率越高的国家 ， 出口货物越多元化 。 将这些不同的影响因素结合在一起产生的效果搭配是巨大的 。 哈佛大学的David Canning以及其他一些学者认为尼日利亚若能将生育率降低1 ， 那么到2060年人均收入将会是原先估计的两倍 。
The big problem is continuing to get children into schooling. In Ghana primary-school enrollment jumped from 66% to 89% between 1990 and 2016. But in Nigeria school enrollment has dropped by four percentage points to just 61% since 2003. The situation is even worse in the north-east of the country, where the jihadists of Boko Haram (whose name, in Hausa, means “Western education is forbidden”) have attacked schools and kidnapped schoolgirls. For many families that cannot rely on the state for education, one option is to send someone across the sea.
最大的困难是继续让孩子进学堂 。 在1990到2016年间 ， 加纳的小学录取率由66%上升至89% 。 但是 ， 尼日利亚自2003年起 ， 学校录取率降低了4个百分点至61% 。 该国的东北地区形势更加严峻 。 Boko Haram的护教者（在豪萨语中意为“西式教育是被禁止的”）攻击学校 ， 绑架女学生 。 对于很多不能依赖国家公共教育的家庭来说 ， 其中一个选择是把孩子送到国外求学 。
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