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非洲■2050年，非洲人口将翻倍( 三 )


There is, however, a 20-year lag between changes in education and changes in fertility, so improvements in schooling since the early 2000s are only beginning to be seen (see chart). The change, when it comes, though, may be quick. In Iran women went from having seven children each to fewer than two between the early 1980s and 2006 after a big rise in female education.
然而 ， 教育变化与生育率变化之间存在20年的时间差 ， 所以 ， 21世纪早期学校教育改善的效果现在才刚刚有所体现 。 但是 ， 变化一旦来临 ， 就会很快产生效果 。 随着女性教育的提升 ， 伊朗的妇女的生育率从20世纪80年代早期平均每人7个孩子降至2006年的2个孩子 。
If African countries were rapidly to expand their provision of schooling for girls the continent’s total population might peak around 1.9bn in 2070 before falling to below 1.8bn by the end of the century, according to Mr Lutz.
卢茨先生称 ， 如果非洲国家迅速扩大妇女受教育面积 ， 那么2070年时 ， 非洲总人口将最高达到19亿人口 ， 截至本世纪末 ， 人口将回落至18亿 。
There are many more reasons to invest in schools than simply to tame population growth. Educated youngsters are more likely to want democratic government, and to reject alternatives such as one-party rule than their uneducated peers. This growing demand for democracy among the young is evident across the continent, whether in the peaceful protests that toppled Omar al-Bashir, the long-standing dictator of Sudan, or that have pushed Ethiopia to abandon one-party rule. Marion Kirabo, a 23-year-old law student in Uganda, helped lead protests against a proposed increase in tuition fees at Makerere University in Kampala last year. The police fired tear gas then hauled them off to a prison cell. “We think we are a different brand,” she says. “We are informed, we are more liberal.”
投资学校教育的作用不仅仅只是控制人口增长 。 受教育的年轻人更有可能期望一个开明的政府 ， 且相比于其他未受教育的同伴来说 ， 他们更有可能反对一党执政 。 无论是在推翻苏丹长期独裁者奥马尔的和平游行中 ， 还是在要求阿塞俄比亚放弃一党执政的实践中 ， 都可以清楚看到年轻一代对民主日益增长的需求 。 Marion Kirabo, 一名23岁的乌干达法学生去年在坎帕拉的Markerere大学协助领导了反对增涨学费的抗议活动 。 警察向他们发射催泪弹并把他们关进了监狱 。 “我认为我们是不同的群体 ， ”她说 ， “我们知道这个世界发生了什么 ， 我们思想更自由开明 。 ”
非洲■2050年，非洲人口将翻倍
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Falling birth rates, when accompanied by rising literacy, can help kick-start growth, too. Economists reckon that up to a third of East Asia’s economic miracle can be attributed to its “demographic dividend”, or improvement in the ratio between the number of working-age people and that of children and pensioners. Lower fertility can also start a virtuous cycle in which families with fewer children can invest more in educating them and are also able to put aside more in savings. This can have wider economic impacts through lowering the cost of capital.
不断下降的出生率以及增长的识字率也可促进国家发展 。 经济学家估计东亚近三分之一的经济奇迹可以归因于“人口红利” ， 或者现有劳动力数量与儿童及退休老人数量比率的提升 。 孩子较少的家庭能够在孩子教育上投资更多并且有更多的存款 ， 这样较低的生育率就能营造一个良性循环 。


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