洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C(15) 原标题：洪灝

----洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is Confirmed）//----江苏龙网 http://www.jiangsulong.com //

USMZMgrowthapproachinghistoricallowsthatusedtocorrespondtoimportantinflectionpointsinAshares;theFedshouldpause.Meanwhile,thesupplygrowthofUS’moneyofzeromaturity(MZM)hasdeceleratedtoalowlevelcomparabletoitshistoricallows.Thesehistoricallowstendtocorrespondtopeakingeconomicgrowth,aswellasimportantinflectionpointsintheChinesestockmarket.Thisobservationisconsistentwithourdiscussionsregardingtheimportanceof2,450inour2019outlookreport“TurningaCorner”(20181119).Thatis,giventheprospectsofslowingUSgrowthgoinginto2019,itisunlikelythattheFedwillcontinueitstightening,unlessinflationistoohightobear.EasingUSliquidityconditionhasbeenconducivetoimportantturningpointsintheChinesestockmarketinthepast(Figure7andFigure8).Thistimeitshouldnotbeanydifferent.

Long-termupwardtrendtrumpsshort-termmoves.Fornow,asforeignbuyinghashitthetradinglimit,andregulatorshaverevealedtheirattitudetowardsmargintrading,theAsharesarepausing.Thefactthattherotationbetweenlargeandsmallcaps,andthechangingmarketleadershipbetweenA50andChiNextastheShanghaiCompositehoversaround3,000suggestthatmarketliquidityisapproachingitsnear-termlimits.ButtheFedpausingtendstoaugurwellfortheAshares.Whilevolatilitywilllikelypersistinthenearterm,forus,thelong-termtrendcontinuestotrumpshort-termmoves.

交銀國際洪灝， CFA

2019-03-22