洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C(11)
Valuationexplainsthebulkofstockreturn;earningsabilityasecondaryconcern.Asecondlogicalinferencefromthisobservationisthat,givencorporateshavelesspricingpowerinanenvironmentwithcollapsingmacrovolatility,earningswillmatterlessinpricingthosecorrespondingstocks.Andfortheobservedstockmarketgyrations,especiallyastheyarenow,otherfactorsdeterminingstockreturnsmustbeatwork.
Wethendecomposestockreturnsintotwocomponents:earningsgrowthandvaluationexpansion.Asdiscussedabove,earningsgrowthshouldcontributelesstostockreturns,ascorporatepricingpowerisdiminishinginthenewmacroenvironment.Therefore,valuationmultiple,theremainingcandidate,shouldbethemostimportantsourceofstockreturns.
Indeed,wecanseethatearningsgrowthhasaccountedforlessandlessofstockreturnsince2006,whilethechangesinvaluationmultiplehavebeenincreasinglydrivingthereturns(Figure6).Sucheffectwasmostpalpableduringtherallyin2009andthebubblein2015,whenliquiditywasabundantbutfundamentalsweredownthedrain.Asharescanrallywithoutfundamentalsforawhile,untilvaluationstraystoofarfromthem,andtherallycollapsesbyitsownweight.
Figure6:Changesinvaluationexplainthebulkofreturn;earningsgrowthissecondary
----洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is Confirmed）//----江苏龙网 http://www.jiangsulong.com //
InvestmentImplications
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