洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C( 七 ) 原标题：洪灝

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Socialinequitysuppressespricevolatility.Inafollow-upreport,wefurtherpositedthatsuchinequalityinsharingproductivitygainsisindeedthecauseofpersistentdisinflation(“DecodingDisinflation:PrincipalContradiction,SocialProgressandMarketFragility”,20171114).Thisissimplybecausethemassesareinadequatelycompensatedandthusunderconsume,whiletheconsumptionbytherichfewcannotmakeupforthelossinconsumptionbythemasses.Theconsequentoversupplybyproductivitygainsrelativetotheunder-consumptionbyinadequatewagegrowthexertsdownwardpressureonconsumerprices.

Ourtheoryisempiricallyconsistentwithvarioussocialdevelopmentsinthepastthreedecades.Pricestabilitymaskstheillsofsocialinequity,andbrewspopulism.Chinahasundergonetremendoussocialtransformationsinceits“ReformandOpen”in1978.As“afewgetrichfirst”,thechasmbetweendifferentsocialclasseswidens.AndtheincomedisparityinChinaisprobablyoneofthemostglaringintheworld–beforeofficialstatisticsarenolongerpublished.Notsurprisingly,consumerpricevolatilityhasalsobeendisappearinginChina.

ChangesinChina’sSavingsandInvestment

Theabovediscussionsprobablyexplaininpartwhypricevolatilitydeclinesacrosstheglobe.But,specificallyforChina,thereareothermacroforcesatwork.

China’smacrosavingsratefalls,moneysupplygrowthandFAIslow.Wenotethat,around2010-11,Chinesehabitofsavingandinvestmentchangedsignificantly.Theaccumulationofcurrentaccountsurplusslowedsharplyafter2009.Itisareflectionofdeceleratingmacrosavingsrate,andoflesserabilitytoattractforeignsavings.Assavingsequalinvestment,fixedassetinvestment(FAI)growthslowedintandem.Aneconomicstructuretiltedmoretowardsconsumptionshouldbelessvolatileandexperiencemorepricestability.Meanwhile,broadmoneysupplygrowth(M2)alsofell,correspondingtotheslowingaccumulationofpositionsforFXpurchase(Figure3).