洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C( 八 ) 原标题：洪灝

Figure3:China’shabitofsavingandinvestmentchangedaround2010/11

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本文原始标题为：洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is Confirmed）---来源是：

本文原始标题为：洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is Confirmed）---来源是：

TheUSsavesmoreandcontributeslesstoChina’smoneygrowth.TheChineseandtheUSeconomiesusedtocomplementeachotherveryclosely.Chinaproduces,Americaconsumes.Assuch,theUScurrentaccountdeficit,theresultofexcessUSconsumption,usedtobeanimportantsourceofliquiditytoChina’smonetarysystem.AstheUShouseholdstriedtodeleverageafter2008,theUScurrentaccountdeficitasapercentageofUSGDPhasinfactimprovedsubstantially.China’sfallingcurrentaccountsurplusasapercentageofGDPisinpartanimageofimprovingUScurrentaccountbalance.AndhenceChina’sfallingmoneysupplygrowth.

Thisisanimportantobservationforassetpricing.BroadmoneysupplygrowthusedtobeessentialfortheperformanceofChinesestocks.Withoutit,wewouldnothaveseenthebigrecoveryrallyafterthe“four-trillion-yuan”stimulus,andthelacklusterreturnsintheensuingyearsasmoneygrowthfell.