洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C(12)

2026-01-12

Allalphaisbeta.Wehavediscussedthatcorporatemarginsarelessofachoicethanaproductofmacroeconomics,andthatstockreturnsaremoreinfluencedbyvaluationmultipleexpansionthanbyearningsgrowth.Assuch,thebulkofstockreturnisactuallysystemicallydrivenbymonetarypolicy.Almostallalphaisbeta.

Insuchanenvironment,weshouldobservethefollowing:

(1)Themarketuniversewillbeincreasinglydominatedbyindexfunds.Orthemarketwillgraduallybeindexation-ized,asmuchofthereturnisdrivenbythesystemicvaluationmultipleexpansionratherthanidiosyncraticearningspower.Infact,theUSmarketnowhasmorelistedETFsthanstocks.China’sindexfundsarerising.

(2)Thecentralbankisthemostimportantdeterminantofstockreturns.Theinvestmentprocesshencewillbecomemorespeculative–notless.Itexplainswhytheworldismoreobsessedwiththepolicychoicesofthecentralbanks.Andnowthequestionsthatwewereconfrontedattheconferencementionedattheopeningofthisreportareentirelypertinent.

(3)Astheabilitytotakeonsystemicrisksisrewarded,stockpickingskillswillbeincreasinglyirrelevant.Eventually,theabilitytogeneratereturndependsonwhetherone’sbalancesheetissizableenoughtoabsorbsystemicriskswhentheyaredue.Orelsesimplysuccumbtoredemptionpressure.

(4)Thereisno“fundamental”bull.Only“sentiment”bull,“leverage”bullor“liquidity”bull.Marketpricescanstrayfromfundamentalsforsometime,aslongasliquidity/creditconditionsaresupportive.Ourexperiencesduringthe2015bubblehaveeducateduswell.Keynes’sayingthatthemarketcanstayirrationallongerthanonecanstaysolventringsevenmoretrue.The“patientbull”thatmanyarehopingforisnotsupportedbydataevidence.

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