洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C(13)
MarketOutlook
Whereelsewillliquiditycomefrom?Wehavediscussedthenecessaryingredientsforaragingbullmarket,alsoknownasbubble.Oneoftheseingredientsincludesvaluationmultipleexpansioninducedbylooseningliquidityconditions.Earningsgrowthalonewillnotbesufficient.Asthemarketsurgesandtradingvolumeexplodesbacktoabovetheonetrillion-yuanmark,therearemanyexcitedbytheprospectsof2015oncemore.Itpaystoinvestigatewhereliquiditywillcomefrom.
Unlikelyfromsavings.ItisunlikelythatChina’scurrentaccountsurplusversusGDP,orthecountry’smacrosavingsrate,willrecovertopre-2009highs.ThewaythatthePBoCcreatesmoneysupplyhaschanged.AndthenewtraderelationshipafterChina’stalkswiththeUSsuggestsfurthershrinkageincurrentaccountsurplusasapercentageofGDP,andhenceinthemacrosavingsrate.
Unlikelyfromcreditgrowth.Domesticcreditcanexpand.Yet,aftertheexplosivesurgeofbanklendinginJanuary,loangrowthsubsidedinFebruary.Anditwaswellbelowexpectations.MonetarystatisticsinMarchwillelaboratethecentralbank’sattitudetowardscreditre-expansion.Ourbestguessisthateasingwillremainrestrainedlysupportive.TherhetoricfromthePBoCalsohintsatsuchinclination.
Foreignbuyinganddomesticmargintrading.TheremainingchannelsfornewliquidityfortheAshareswillbeforeignbuyinganddomesticmargintrading.Yet,aswehavediscussedindetailinourpreviousreport“Who’sBuying?Who’sNext”(20190311),margintradingturnoverasapercentageoftotalmarketturnoverisapproachingits12%upperlimitobservedsincethe2015bubbleburst.Recently,regulatorshaveforbiddentheparticipationofOTCmargintradingviabrokers.Giventhelessonsfrom2015,margintradingareunlikelytoescapethescrutinyfromtheregulators.
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