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每日英语新闻|双语阅读 | 你的工作还有多久会被机器取代?( 二 )


” So what does this mean for the coming years and decades?
那么 ， 这对未来几年、几十年究竟意味着什么？
In-creasing unemployment?
失业增加？
The survey suggest machines could also be folding laundry by 2021. So, if you work at a laundromat, is it time to throw in the towel? Perhaps not.
这项调查表明 ， 到2021年 ， 机器可以把洗好的衣服叠起来 。 所以 ， 如果你在洗衣店工作 ， 是不是就该投降了？恐怕不是 。
Machines that can fold clothes do already exist: roboticists at the University of California, Berkeley, have already developed a robot that can neatly fold towels, jeans and t-shirts.
能叠衣服的机器已经存在：加州大学伯克利分校的机器人学家已经开发了一种能够熟练叠好毛巾、牛仔裤和T恤衫的机器人 。
Admittedly, it took the robot nearly 19 minutes to pick up, inspect and fold a single towel in 2010, but by 2012, it could fold a pair of jeans in five minutes and a t-shirt in a little over six minutes. Perhaps most excitingly, though, the robot can even take on the tedious task of pairing socks.
但必须承认 ， 要让机器人捡起、查看、叠好一件衣服 ， 2010年大约要花19分钟 ， 但到2012年 ， 只需要6分多钟就能叠好一条牛仔裤和一件T恤衫 。 但最令人惊讶的或许在于 ， 机器人可以完成袜子配对这种乏味的工作 。
But despite this progress, it could be some time before robots like this are able to replace humans.
然而 ， 尽管取得了这种进步 ， 这样的机器人想要真正取代人类仍然需要一段时间 。
"I am a bit sceptical of some of the timelines given for tasks that involve physical manipulation," says Jeremy Wyatt, professor of robotics and artificial intelligence at the University of Birmingham.
“我对某些需要实际操作的任务被机器取代的时间表持怀疑态度 。 ”伯明翰大学机器人和人工智能教授杰里米·怀亚特（Jeremy Wyatt）说 。
"It is one thing doing it in the lab, and quite another having a robot that can do a job reliably in the real world better than a human."
“在实验室里是一回事 ， 但要让机器人在现实世界中比人类做得更好却是另一回事 。 ” Manipulating physical objects in the real world – figuring out what to manipulate, and how, in a random, changing environment – is an incredibly complex job for a machine. Tasks that don't involve physical manipulation are easier to teach.
对机器来说 ， 在现实世界中操纵物体是一个无比复杂的任务 ， 需要搞清楚操作的对象 ， 还要了解如何在一个随机变化的环境中进行操作 。 不需要实际操作的任务反而更容易掌握 。
Robot mobility – things like self-driving cars and autonomous deliveries – are probably at the stage the internet was in the early 1990s, Wyatt says. "Moving things around in the world is probably 10 years further behind that."
怀亚特认为 ， 机器人的移动性——包括无人驾驶汽车和自动化配送等——大概就像20世纪90年代初的互联网 。 “四处移动东西可能还要再等10年 。 ”
Your friendly robot assistant 机器人好助手 While towel folders are safe for now, perhaps there is reason for truck drivers and retailers to consider their roles over the coming two decades. The researchers predict that AI could be driving trucks by 2027 and doing retail jobs by 2031.


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